This Sunday, well Monday morning for us in Ireland will see the 92nd Academy Awards unfold in LA. With only hours to go before we know for certain who will take the industry’s top prizes, I wanted to take a look at the likely winners, as well as telling you who, however unlikely, I think should be the one to receive the accolade.
Best Actor
Who Will Win – Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Who Should Win – Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
As someone who has actively avoided seeing Joker for a variety of reasons, I don’t feel that I could write that someone else deserves to win, having not seen what has been hailed as a career defining performance. My favourite acting performance of the year was Taron Egerton’s portrayal of Elton John in Rocketman, with his lack of a nomination undoubtedly being one of this year's most surprising snubs. What will be interesting to see will be Phoenix’s speech, with the actor’s BAFTAs speech calling for awards committees to be more inclusive of diverse actors.
Best Actress
Who Will Win – Renée Zellweger, Judy
Who Should Win - Renée Zellweger, Judy
Biopic? Check. Of a beloved Star? Check. An actor transforming for the role? Check. Doing their own singing? Check. Yes, Judy is about as Oscar-bait-y as they come, pandering to all of the Academy’s well-known vices. That being said, Zellweger does turn in a masterful performance of icon Judy Garland, and her win could mark a full circle conclusion of what has been termed her Renée-ssance, marking the actresses return to critically acclaimed roles on television and in film.
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win- Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time..... In Hollywood Who Should Win – Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time.... In Hollywood
It would be hard to deny Brad Pitt a well-deserved Oscar for his performance in Once Upon a Time…… In Hollywood. He faces little or no competition from any of his fellow nominees, and remains unchallenged in all of the awards ceremonies thus far. He has been a delight all awards season, with his speeches being one of the main highlights of each of this year’s ceremonies. Should he win, this will be Pitt’s first acting Oscar, with the actor already having a producing gong for Best Picture winner 12 Years A Slave
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win – Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Who Should Win- Florence Pugh, Little Women
If one thing can be made certain about Hollywood, it’s that it loves a legacy. This is nevermore seen than with Laura Dern, the daughter of two prominent actors, Bruce Dern and Diane Ladd. While Dern gives a strong supporting performance in Marriage Story, she is strongly helped by a wonderfully detailed and exact script by Noah Baumbach. Another recent trend in the Oscars is to award an actor or actress an acting Oscar for a certain film, with the knowledge that the award actually encompasses the entirely of work released by an actor in a particular year. An example if this being Alicia Vikander, who won an Oscar in 2016 for her work in The Danish Girl, which was just one of the acclaimed performances given by Vikander in the previous year. The same could be said of both Dern and Pugh, but it is undoubtedly the latter who has had the more career defining year. Her performance in Little Women is extraordinary, with performances in Midsommar, and the upcoming Black Widow movie drawing more buzz and acclaim for the actress. No one has had a better year career wise than Florence Pugh and she deserves her nomination, and should the academy feel like shaking things up a bit, much like the Best Actress race last year, she’d be a worthy recipient.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win – Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
Who Should Win – Greta Gerwig, Little Women
In recent years, the screenplay accolades have been a means with which the academy can award films, which are unlikely to win best picture, but which feel worthy of being recognized. I loved both JoJo Rabbit and Little Women and would be happy to see either of them win. With a BAFTA already in the bag, JoJo would seem the favourite, but given the academy’s frequent snubs of Gerwig, an internet darling, it wouldn’t be surprising to see her take the gong, almost as to make up for her directing nomination snub.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win - Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time…. In Hollywood.
Who Should Win – Rian Johnson, Knives Out.
Like I said above, screenplay awards have recently become a means with which the academy can recognize more films. It could be likely that if Once Upon A Time…. In Hollywood wins this award, that it is unlikely to win Best Picture. If the academy were to reward innovation however, the award should go to Rian Johnson for Knives Out, a remarkable film which reinvigorated a dying genre, and which was my best picture of the year. The crafting in that script is unbelievable and though it is highly unlikely that it will win, it is well worth the watch and the sequels which are sure to follow.
Best Director
Who Will Win – Sam Mendes, 1917
Who Should Win- Greta Gerwig…… and Greta Gerwig only
In all honesty 1917 isn’t the best film ever made, it’s not even the best film of the year, and without its great editing and cinematography it would be an utterly “meh” film. While the film is visually stunning, this, in my opinion, is not down to the “genius” of its director, but rather the skill and dedication of his cinematographer and editor. Set to be the most frustrating win of the night, I’ll be hoping that Parasite can do what Roma done last year and take the Best Director and Best Film in a Foreign Language awards. Of course, Greta Gerwig should be the one winning, but she’s not nominated so…… congrats to those men.
Best Picture
Who Will Win - 1917
Who Should Win – Once Upon A Time…. in Hollywood
As I’ve said I’m not the biggest fan of 1917, and if recent Best Pictures are anything to go by, the most “ok” film of the year seems to be the one taking the industry’s top prize. For me, the best picture winner should encompass everything great about filmmaking. A great script, great acting, great direction, a film that is visually stunning, and stays with you long after you’ve seen it. My favourite film of last year, the one that I talked most about, and the one I felt encompassed all of these things wasn’t even nominated for best picture, my second favourite, Little Women received a nomination but stands little or no chance of winning. Of all the remaining nominees, the only one that fits all of my criteria is Once Upon A Time… In Hollywood. This, and Parasite, seem to be the only possible challengers to Mendes’ war film, and should it win it would be significant, being the first comedy film to win Best Picture since 2011’s The Artist.
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