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Oscars 2022: Who Will Win vs Who Should Win

  • Writer: Robyn Murphy
    Robyn Murphy
  • Mar 27, 2022
  • 7 min read

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It is safe to say that this year's Oscars race hasn't evaded controversy. From vaccine requirements, to invitation snubs and a litany of controversial comments and ceremony decisions in between, this awards season has been, for better or worse, a fascinating one to follow. While there are some clear frontrunners, this awards season feels like one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. We have already seen some surprising wins and snubs in the earlier awards shows of the season, teeing us up for a gripping conclusion this Sunday. So without further ado, here are my 2022 Oscar predictions, and who I think should take home the industry's top prize.

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Best Picture

Who Will Win: CODA

Who Should Win: Belfast


In what is shaping up to be one of the most open ended Best Picture races in recent memory, it was incredibly difficult for me to pick a winner out of a number of films which I thoroughly enjoyed this year. Some of my favourites, tick, tick ... BOOM! and Spider-Man: No Way Home (yes, I know it's a superhero film and I don't care it 10000% deserved a Best Picture nomination in recognition for all which it achieved), weren't even nomiated, and of those who were, Belfast and West Side Story were my top two. Neither of which seems to stand a chance against the formidable competition of Netflix's critical darling The Power of the Dog, and CODA, the little Sundance film that could. If I were in charge of giving out the gold on Sunday, I'd give it to Kenneth Branagh's semi-autobiographical chronicle of a young Northern Irish family reconciling with whether or not they should leave troubles torn Belfast and their families behind them. But it seems that momentum is with CODA (children of deaf adults), which follows the hearing daughter and interpreter for her deaf family, as she wrestles with her responsibilities and expectations, and wanting to follow her dreams of being a singer. Winner of the SAG award for Cast in a Motion Picture, (which, though considered the strongest precursor to Oscars gold, does not ultimately guarantee it), and going from strength to strength with each passing awards show, it is looking likely to have a big night tomorrow.


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Best Actor

Who Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard Who Should Win: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick ... BOOM!


It is hard to deny Smith the statuette for his performance as Richard Williams, father of tennis aces Venus and Serena, and having won every major precursor to the Oscars, he is probably the most certain of all of the potential winners. But looking at all of the nominees, its hard to feel like Andrew Garfield isn't being robbed of much deserved Oscar glory for his portrayal of tragic musical composer Jonathan Larson. In a performance which led Larson's sister to comment that she felt like she had her brother back when watching the film, Garfield absolutely shines. And sadly, were it any other year I feel like he would be formidable in the Best Actor race. Alas, not even a career best performance can stop Will Smith's momentum however, and he is certain to take home Oscar's gold on Sunday.


Best Actress

Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye


It is a rarity for all of the leading actress nominees to come from films not nominated for Best Picture, but that is where we find ourselves this year. And admittedly, in a year of so many nominated films and so little time, a lot of these performances passed me by. But my vote for this year's winner is with favourite, Jessica Chastain. Like Best Picture, this years Best Actress race has been one of the most open in recent memory. Many different performances have been honoured at the various awards shows across the year, but Chastain, the winner of the SAG and critic's choice award carries the most momentum going into Sunday's show. On top of this, the Academy are known for occasionally awarding an Oscar for a body of work, as opposed to a specific performance, (see, Leonardo DiCaprio finally winning for The Revenant and Will Smith, who will no doubt take the award this year after a long, renowned career), and as a two-time previous nominee, Chastain could be given favour over the three previous Oscar winners also nominated in this category. There is still an outside chance that Kirsten Stewart could do what Olivia Colman did just a few years ago, and come from seemingly nowhere to snatch the gold on Sunday, but my vote is still with Jessica Chastain.


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Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Who Should Win: Mike Faist, West Side Story


Ok, I guess that you could say choosing someone who is not even nominated as my winner is stupid. But Mike Faist gave undoubtedly the best supporting actor performance of the year and that is the hill that I will die on. The purpose of awarding supporting actors and actresses is too recognise those who make a profound impact to their films with limited screentime. Of all of the, admittedly, strong nominees this year, Faist dominated every scene he was in, and watching West Side Story, a bright and loud musical fully of dazzling characters and ensemble pieces, your eyes are drawn to Faist in every scene he is in. Truly a remarkable breakthrough performance. But love and momentum are with Kotsur, the first deaf actor ever nominated for an acting award at the Oscars, who is set to become only the second deaf actor ever (after CODA co-star Marlee Matlin) to win Oscars acting gold.



Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Who Should Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story


There is absolutely no doubt that on Sunday, DeBose will follow in the footsteps of co-star Rita Moreno and win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for her performance as Anita in West Side Story, and deservedly so. DeBose is absolutely electric on screen, and excels in the most daunting task of performing this role alongside Moreno. So commanding is her performance, that I have heard many non-musical fans remark that she captivated them in their viewing of the film. Oscars gold is certain to be hers tomorrow.

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Best Director

Who Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of The Dog

Who Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of The Dog


Like DeBose, Campion has dominated awards season this year, and to even suggest that someone could possibly cause an upset would be preposterous. Oscar statue securely in her hands, Jane Campion becomes only the 3rd woman in the Oscar's 94 year history to win the Best Director award, is only the first woman to receive multiple nominations in this category. Alongside this, her win on Sunday will mark the the first time in Oscar's history that we will see back to back female winners in this category. Long may it continue.


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Best Adapted Screenplay:

Who Will Win: Siân Heder, CODA

Who Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of The Dog


The screenplay awards are similarly difficult to call this year. There are many directions which the academy could choose to go. Whilst it is certainly not an impossibility, I think it's unlikely that The Power of The Dog will win Best Picture, so perhaps then the Academy will honour the film with many other top awards, like Adapted Screenplay and Director. Of the same vain, after missing out on a Best Director nomination, Siân Heder could scoop the gong for CODA. Or maybe Maggie Gyllenhaal could be rewarded by her peers for The Lost Daughter. I think Dune and international sensation Drive My Car are out of the mix, and that the race is between Heder and Campion. I think Heder will scoop it, but as it was a much more difficult adaptation, I think Campion deserves the award.


Best Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Who Should Win: Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in The World.


Similar to Heder possibly winning adapted screenplay after missing out on a Best Director nomination, I reckon that Kenneth Branagh stands almost certain to win Best Original Screenplay for Belfast as a mark of recognition for the film. At this point, save for an outsiders chance at Best Picture, the film doesn't stand to be competitive in any other awards races. It is no secret that the academy will often honour a film with a screenplay Oscar as a mark of recognition for the film and its achievements (see when this was the only Oscar awarded to Get Out in 2018), and so Belfast is likely to be the favourite in this category tomorrow. Who deserves to win this award however is Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier, for the truly remarkable The Worst Person in The World. The film is without a doubt one of my favourites which I saw this year, and I'd love nothing more than for it to win international feature, but there is simply no beating Drive My Car. Not only are the performances remarkable, but the film's cleaver, and insightful screenplay is the true star of the film. Either way, I will be satisfied with the outcome of this category, but it would be amazing to see the Norwegian film scoop the prize on the night.


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Other Predictions



Song “Be Alive” (“King Richard”) “Dos Oruguitas” (“Encanto”) “Down to Joy” (“Belfast”) “No Time to Die” (“No Time to Die”) “Somehow You Do” (“Four Good Days”)


International Feature “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom,” Bhutan “Flee,” Denmark “The Hand of God,” Italy “Drive My Car,” Japan “The Worst Person in the World,” Norway





 
 
 

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