Oscars 2023: Who Will Win vs Who Should Win

The time has come once again for my Oscars Predictions! I feel like this year's ceremony has come around much quicker than last (it is two weeks earlier than last year's ceremony), and given all the drama of last year, and this year's surprises and possible rule breaks, I have no doubt that we're in for an eventful ceremony. In spite if it being a momentous year for Irish nominees, I don't foresee us having a very successful night, but sure look isn't it an honour just to be nominated! So without further ado, here are my predictions.

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Starting out strong and controversial. I am genuinely a big fan of EEAAO, and if it does manage to grab the gong tonight I will be delighted. But you all know how I feel about Top Gun: Maverick. Whilst it is not the most astounding or complex of the films in the bunch, it deserves recognition for its incredible achievement of getting audiences back to cinemas properly for the first time since the pandemic. A frequent criticism of the Academy and their choices for Best Picture is that they rarely award films that are popular with audiences. Blockbuster movies don't win Oscars. And whilst we have seen more traditionally popular movies break into awards season in recent years, let's not forget Green Book won Best Picture the year that Black Panther was nominated. It would be incredibly momentous for EEAAO to take home the top prize, but I still wouldn't be surprised if the Academy played it safe and went with The Fabelmans.

Best Director

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Who Should Win: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

I'm not overly enthusiastic about any of the Best Director nominees this year. Again, women have been entirely shut out of the category, a real shame since we had back to back female winners the last two years. Some of the best and most exciting films of the last year were directed by women, and it is disappointing that they weren't recognised. I think the Academy will try and spread the wealth, and give the award to Spielberg since I don't think The Fabelmans will win Best Picture.

Best Lead Actor

Who Will Win: Austin Butler (“Elvis”)

Who Should Win: Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

Until this week, I had a strong, unshakable gut feeling that Paul Mescal would pull an Olivia Colman and sneak the whole thing out from under everyones feet. Now I'm not so sure. Mescal has done everything right from a promotional and publicity standpoint, and of all the nominees he's arguably the one who's been in the press the most since the nominations were announced. With countless new project announcements and relationship speculations, I don't think a week has gone by without seeing his name in multiple headlines. Similarly, Austin Butler has been hitting the campaign trail hard since May of last year. And with the recent passing of Lisa Marie Presley, the film, and his performance, has received more attention than ever. Butler gives a fantastic performance in Elvis when he's given the chance to shine (which, for me, was too little in the film's long run time), but it pales in comparison to the quiet, understated performance Mescal gives in Aftersun. As single father Callum, Mescal gives a breathtaking performance, giving the audience glimpses into his private mental health struggle whilst putting on a brave face for his daughter in what will be their last holiday. I don't think he'll win tonight, but I have no doubt that in 5 or 10 years time this performance will be making lists of performances which were robbed of Academy recognition.

Best Lead Actress

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)

Who Should Win: Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

In the Oscar's 95 year history, only one non-white actress has won the Actress in a Leading Role award. Halle Berry for Monster's Ball. With Berry on the list of presenters, viewers have been speculating that the academy have drafted her in to present the Best Actress Award on the chance that Michelle Yeoh will win, and become the first Asian woman and only second non-white honouree. Whilst I still think Yeoh can do it, and she's got the SAG win momentum in her corner, recently deleted instagram posts of an outlet calling out Blanchett and the Academy haven't done her any favours. With Oscar voting still being open during the controversy, it could hurt Yeoh's chances. Ultimately, I think it will be Blanchett who will win her 3rd Career Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

I'm still crying over "in another life, I think I would have really liked just doing laundry and taxes with you." Ke has been the star of awards season so far, and is definitely the most deserving of this award. Barry Keoghan is wonderful in Banshees, but I don't think there's anyone who would begrudge Ke this, and I can't wait to see another memorable speech from him.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

Who Should Win: Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

I would love nothing more than for an Irish win in the acting categories, and of all our nominees, Kerry Condon has the best chance. Prognosticator site Gold Derby has listed her as the favourite but in spite of this, and Jamie Lee Curtis winning the SAG, I don't see Bassett loosing this. Much beloved in the industry, and already robbed of Oscar Gold for What's Love Got To Do With It, there is a sense that Bassett is long overdue this moment.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: “Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Who Should Win: “Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Polley, who was cruelly robbed of a Best Director nomination in my opinion, should be a dead cert for this award this evening. Of all of the screenplays, original and adapted, this for me is the most remarkable. Heartbreaking and incredibly moving, it's a film that likely deserves more recognition than it will get.

Best Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh

Who Should Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Written by Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

For the ingenuity of it, I would love to see this go to the Daniels for EEAAO, and they stand a good chance, but what I think is more likely is that the Academy will recognise McDonagh for Banshees, as I can't see the film winning much else in spite of its 9 nominations.

Other Predictions

Best Cinematography

“Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins

Best Documentary Feature Film

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov

Best Documentary Short Film

“How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt

Best Film Editing

“Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton

Best International Feature Film

“Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)

Best Original Song

“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose

Best Production Design

“Babylon,” Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

Best Visual Effects

“Avatar: The Way of Water,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

Best Animated Feature Film

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley

Best Animated Short Film

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

Best Costume Design

“Elvis,” Catherine Martin

Best Live Action Short

“An Irish Goodbye,” Tom Berkeley and Ross White

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“The Batman,” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine

Best Original Score

“Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz

Best Sound

“Elvis,” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller