Could the fallout from Covid-19 spell the end for Cinemas?

As we begin to look forward to the increased easing of government imposed Covid-19 restrictions, and start to imagine how life as we once knew it could begin to get back to normal, I find myself wondering about how the lockdown measures will impact the film industry as a whole, but in particular cinema chains. Slated to be one of the last sectors to open in the Irish government’s roadmap to the easing of restrictions, it’s hard to imagine how cinemas can get back up and running with the increased emphasis on social distancing meaning that we may no longer be able to choose our own seats, or attended with groups of friends. As of yet it is not known white type of social distancing measures will be introduced or needed in cinemas, but you can expect there to be an increased number of empty seats when we can go back to attending cinemas to enable social distancing, meaning cinema chains will not be able to recoup as much money for each screening they have. Whilst this might not be largely detrimental to large cinema chains like Odeon, smaller, independent cinemas may struggle to reopen and continue to trade should this be the case for the forceable future. This, in combination with the increase in the number of studios who have reaped the benefits of releasing their films through on demand services during the pandemic, could mean that the sector is headed for some tough times upon reopening.

While there is nothing like going to the cinema, with the great food, and the unbridled feeling of watching a film for the first time on a huge screen with friends or family, a surprising number of people have found that they have been able to easily replicate the experience at home with the benefit of being able to get films, which should have only been newly released in cinemas, straight to their home. While pre-pandemic you could have expected to wait around a year for your favorite film to appear on on demand services after being released in cinemas, the immediacy of the new process has become increasingly appealing. While you still have to pay for access to the newest releases on demand, with prices ranging from 15 to 20 euro per film, and once purchased you have 30 days to start the film and then 48 hours to finish it (so you get to rent it as opposed to having it on your TV forever), prices are still cheaper this way than the standard cost of a trip to the cinema for two adults, adding to its appeal. The cinema industry has already been forced to battle against the increasing number of streaming services appearing in recent years, meaning that people are less inclined to go out to see a film when they have a vast collection available to them at home, but the release of new films directly to on demand services, essentially cuts the cinemas out of the distribution chain as a de facto middle man, and this could result in a struggle to regain cinema attendance to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, there has also been some conflict with studios and cinema chains of late with AMC Cinemas, and its Ireland and UK equivalent Odeon, stating they will no longer screen Universal films following a bitter dispute with NBC Universal CEO Jeff Shell over film distribution. Shell has stated that the appeal of the on demanded service has led to the studio considering the continuation of the process going forward. If they do continue with the process, Universal plan to release films in cinemas and on demand simultaneously, but this decision has angered AMC Chief executive Adam Aron, who in retaliation has stated that going forward the company and their overseas affiliates will not show any films from the studio. Whilst it remains to be seen if this vow will be held upon cinemas reopening, if it is the knowledge that your local cinema won’t be showing the latest Fast and Furious film, or the newest animation releases, could push patrons further towards on demand services.

While it may be too early to tell what sort of effect the pandemic will have on cinema chains, the release of films on demand has appeared to be a runaway success for studios, with Universal reporting that the studio earned $100 million from the on demand release of Trolls: World Tour. Though nothing can replicate the cinema going experience, it appears that there will certainly be some patrons, families especially, who may think twice about attending once restrictions are eased, as while there is still a cost involved in renting at home, it pales in comparison to what a family of four would expect to pay for a trip to the cinema. Hopefully the increase in measures that would be needed to stop the spread of Covid-19 in cinemas will not be detrimental for smaller, independent cinema chains, as these are often the ones which provide the nicest of cinema going experiences. Though we will have to wait and see what will come of cinema chains, it certainly doesn’t appear that there will be many who will be rushing back on opening weekend.